Updated on Friday 15 May 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
United States 86890 (+1718) 1456057 (+26284) 317017 (+8852) 1052150 (+15714)
United Kingdom 33614 (+428) 233151 (+3446) 0 (+0) 199537 (+3018)
Italy 31368 (+262) 223096 (+992) 115288 (+2747) 76440 (-2017)
France 27425 (+351) 178870 (+810) 59605 (+932) 91840 (-473)
Spain 27321 (+217) 272646 (+1551) 186480 (+3253) 58845 (-1919)
Brazil 13993 (+835) 202918 (+13761) 79479 (+1055) 109446 (+11871)
Belgium 8903 (+60) 54288 (+307) 14111 (+174) 31274 (+73)
Germany 7928 (+67) 174975 (+877) 150300 (+1600) 16747 (-790)
Iran 6854 (+71) 114533 (+1808) 90539 (+1111) 17140 (+626)
Netherlands 5590 (+28) 43481 (+270) 0 (+0) 37891 (+242)
Canada 5472 (+170) 73401 (+1123) 36091 (+927) 31838 (+26)
China 4633 (+0) 82929 (+3) 78195 (+6) 101 (-3)
Mexico 4220 (+294) 40186 (+1862) 26990 (+1055) 8976 (+513)
Turkey 4007 (+55) 144749 (+1635) 104030 (+2315) 36712 (-735)
Sweden 3529 (+69) 28582 (+673) 4971 (+0) 20082 (+604)
India 2649 (+98) 81997 (+3942) 27969 (+1569) 51379 (+2275)
Ecuador 2338 (+4) 30502 (+16) 3433 (+0) 24731 (+12)
Russia 2305 (+93) 252245 (+9974) 53530 (+5527) 196410 (+4354)
Peru 2267 (+98) 80604 (+4298) 25151 (+827) 53186 (+3373)
Switzerland 1872 (+2) 30463 (+50) 27100 (+0) 1491 (+48)
Ireland 1506 (+9) 23827 (+426) 19470 (+0) 2851 (+417)
Portugal 1184 (+9) 28319 (+187) 3198 (+16) 23937 (+162)
Romania 1053 (+17) 16247 (+245) 9053 (+1092) 6141 (-864)
Indonesia 1043 (+15) 16006 (+568) 3518 (+231) 11445 (+322)
Poland 883 (+22) 17615 (+411) 6696 (+286) 10036 (+103)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 14 May 2020 298407 (+5329) 4437458 (+95557) 1621395 (+44990)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 15 May 2020 287580 ( +1959) 4243272 ( +38348) 1598875 ( +34506)
Sat 16 May 2020 289375 ( +1795) 4279113 ( +35841) 1631884 ( +33010)
Sun 17 May 2020 291017 ( +1642) 4312566 ( +33453) 1663377 ( +31493)
Mon 18 May 2020 292518 ( +1501) 4343754 ( +31188) 1693345 ( +29968)
Tue 19 May 2020 293889 ( +1370) 4372796 ( +29043) 1721793 ( +28448)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 14 May 2020 4633 (+0) 82929 (+3) 78195 (+6)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 15 May 2020 4616 ( +0) 82963 ( +3) 77209 ( +0)
Sat 16 May 2020 4616 ( +0) 82965 ( +2) 77209 ( +0)
Sun 17 May 2020 4616 ( +0) 82967 ( +2) 77209 ( +0)
Mon 18 May 2020 4616 ( +0) 82969 ( +2) 77209 ( +0)
Tue 19 May 2020 4616 ( +0) 82971 ( +2) 77210 ( +0)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 14 May 2020 27321 (+217) 272646 (+1551) 186480 (+3253)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 15 May 2020 27034 ( +73) 271086 ( +1110) 183453 ( +1071)
Sat 16 May 2020 27099 ( +65) 272097 ( +1011) 184352 ( +899)
Sun 17 May 2020 27157 ( +58) 273016 ( +920) 185103 ( +752)
Mon 18 May 2020 27209 ( +52) 273851 ( +835) 185731 ( +627)
Tue 19 May 2020 27256 ( +46) 274609 ( +758) 186253 ( +522)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 14 May 2020 31368 (+262) 223096 (+992) 115288 (+2747)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 15 May 2020 31095 ( +99) 221860 ( +513) 115105 ( +2167)
Sat 16 May 2020 31185 ( +90) 222326 ( +466) 117193 ( +2088)
Sun 17 May 2020 31266 ( +81) 222748 ( +423) 119200 ( +2007)
Mon 18 May 2020 31340 ( +74) 223131 ( +383) 121127 ( +1926)
Tue 19 May 2020 31407 ( +67) 223478 ( +347) 122972 ( +1845)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 14 May 2020 33614 (+428) 233151 (+3446) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 15 May 2020 32975 ( +105) 225917 ( +1790) nan ( +nan)
Sat 16 May 2020 33059 ( +84) 227561 ( +1644) nan ( +nan)
Sun 17 May 2020 33126 ( +67) 229069 ( +1508) nan ( +nan)
Mon 18 May 2020 33180 ( +54) 230451 ( +1382) nan ( +nan)
Tue 19 May 2020 33223 ( +43) 231717 ( +1265) nan ( +nan)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 14 May 2020 86890 (+1718) 1456057 (+26284) 317017 (+8852)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 15 May 2020 86135 ( +979) 1454159 ( +14694) 328906 ( +14970)
Sat 16 May 2020 87058 ( +923) 1467647 ( +13488) 344325 ( +15418)
Sun 17 May 2020 87926 ( +869) 1479991 ( +12344) 360194 ( +15870)
Mon 18 May 2020 88743 ( +817) 1491260 ( +11269) 376518 ( +16323)
Tue 19 May 2020 89511 ( +768) 1501521 ( +10262) 393296 ( +16778)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 14 May 2020 27425 (+351) 178870 (+810) 59605 (+932)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 15 May 2020 27051 ( +81) 181014 ( +976) 58587 ( +320)
Sat 16 May 2020 27123 ( +72) 181996 ( +983) 58875 ( +288)
Sun 17 May 2020 27187 ( +64) 182985 ( +989) 59135 ( +259)
Mon 18 May 2020 27244 ( +57) 183979 ( +994) 59368 ( +233)
Tue 19 May 2020 27295 ( +51) 184977 ( +998) 59576 ( +209)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 14 May 2020 7928 (+67) 174975 (+877) 150300 (+1600)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 15 May 2020 7841 ( +37) 173438 ( +306) 150003 ( +1052)
Sat 16 May 2020 7874 ( +33) 173713 ( +275) 150986 ( +983)
Sun 17 May 2020 7904 ( +30) 173959 ( +246) 151903 ( +917)
Mon 18 May 2020 7930 ( +26) 174179 ( +220) 152759 ( +856)
Tue 19 May 2020 7953 ( +23) 174377 ( +197) 153557 ( +798)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 14 May 2020 5590 (+28) 43481 (+270) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 15 May 2020 5555 ( +21) 42918 ( +85) nan ( +nan)
Sat 16 May 2020 5573 ( +19) 42994 ( +76) nan ( +nan)
Sun 17 May 2020 5590 ( +17) 43061 ( +67) nan ( +nan)
Mon 18 May 2020 5605 ( +15) 43121 ( +60) nan ( +nan)
Tue 19 May 2020 5618 ( +13) 43174 ( +53) nan ( +nan)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 14 May 2020 8903 (+60) 54288 (+307) 14111 (+174)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 15 May 2020 8951 ( +53) 52900 ( +109) 14023 ( +82)
Sat 16 May 2020 8999 ( +48) 52997 ( +97) 14097 ( +74)
Sun 17 May 2020 9042 ( +43) 53083 ( +87) 14163 ( +66)
Mon 18 May 2020 9080 ( +38) 53160 ( +77) 14222 ( +59)
Tue 19 May 2020 9115 ( +34) 53229 ( +69) 14275 ( +53)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 14 May 2020 3529 (+69) 28582 (+673) 4971 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 15 May 2020 3481 ( +44) 28643 ( +453) 5262 ( +19)
Sat 16 May 2020 3524 ( +42) 29085 ( +443) 5275 ( +12)
Sun 17 May 2020 3563 ( +40) 29517 ( +432) 5283 ( +8)
Mon 18 May 2020 3601 ( +38) 29938 ( +421) 5288 ( +5)
Tue 19 May 2020 3637 ( +36) 30349 ( +411) 5292 ( +3)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 14 May 2020 883 (+22) 17615 (+411) 6696 (+286)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 15 May 2020 874 ( +12) 17638 ( +275) 6672 ( +167)
Sat 16 May 2020 885 ( +11) 17901 ( +262) 6826 ( +154)
Sun 17 May 2020 896 ( +11) 18150 ( +250) 6968 ( +142)
Mon 18 May 2020 906 ( +10) 18387 ( +236) 7097 ( +129)
Tue 19 May 2020 915 ( +9) 18610 ( +223) 7215 ( +118)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 14 May 2020 1872 (+2) 30463 (+50) 27100 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 15 May 2020 1862 ( +3) 30177 ( +12) 26988 ( +82)
Sat 16 May 2020 1865 ( +3) 30187 ( +10) 27060 ( +72)
Sun 17 May 2020 1867 ( +2) 30196 ( +9) 27123 ( +63)
Mon 18 May 2020 1870 ( +2) 30204 ( +8) 27178 ( +55)
Tue 19 May 2020 1871 ( +2) 30211 ( +7) 27226 ( +48)

Brazil

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 14 May 2020 13993 (+835) 202918 (+13761) 79479 (+1055)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 15 May 2020 14583 ( +709) 209713 ( +9680) 78054 ( +2253)
Sat 16 May 2020 15289 ( +706) 219315 ( +9602) 80185 ( +2131)
Sun 17 May 2020 15987 ( +698) 228786 ( +9471) 82190 ( +2006)
Mon 18 May 2020 16671 ( +685) 238076 ( +9290) 84070 ( +1880)
Tue 19 May 2020 17338 ( +667) 247138 ( +9062) 85825 ( +1755)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 14 May 2020 6854 (+71) 114533 (+1808) 90539 (+1111)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 15 May 2020 6781 ( +28) 105278 ( +251) 87819 ( +407)
Sat 16 May 2020 6806 ( +26) 105508 ( +230) 88193 ( +374)
Sun 17 May 2020 6830 ( +24) 105718 ( +211) 88536 ( +343)
Mon 18 May 2020 6852 ( +22) 105911 ( +193) 88851 ( +315)
Tue 19 May 2020 6872 ( +20) 106088 ( +177) 89140 ( +289)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.